Carmelo Duncan
BPortland Lumberjacks · Post Scorer / Mobile Big
College: Marquette · West Seneca, New York
Powerful shot-blocking forward
A rotation center averaging 1.5 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 0.2 APG. Excels in rim protection (19 rating, 100th pctl), post defense (18 rating, 87th pctl) and defensive rebounding (17 rating, 86th pctl). Limited by free throws (10 rating, 7th pctl) and off-ball defense (7 rating, 13th pctl).
49
Impact
4
CA
4
PA
23
Age
$1.8M
Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)
Strengths
Defensive Rebounding 17 (coef=0.0204)
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0145)
Offensive Rebounding 17 (coef=0.0145)
Rim Protection 19 (coef=0.0122)
Help Defense 17 (coef=0.0134)
Weaknesses
Pick & Roll Execution 8 (coef=0.0152)
3PT Shooting 10 (coef=0.0122)
Endurance 9 (coef=0.0092)
Foul Drawing 13 (coef=0.0080)
Shoot Off Dribble 3 (coef=0.0071)
Play Style
Driving Frequency
16%
Roll : Pop
73:27
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up
87:13
Corner 3 : Above the Break
59:41
Positional Fit
Guard
0%
Wing
0%
Big
80%
Player Impact Breakdown
Limited to 79 min — score regressed toward league average.
49
/ 100
#296 of 503
On-Court Impact (EPM) — 60% weight
-0.88z
EPM -2.33 (Off -1.52, Def -0.81)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight
+0.12z
Ridge coefficient score: 0.0216
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight
-0.11z
WS/48 residual: -0.0092 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
47
#362
Defense
51
#239
Confidence
22%
79 min
Tendencies
Salary
$1.8M
Years Left
1
Expiry
End of 2049
Option
None
Status
Backup/Rotation
Trade Value
0.436
Contract Breakdown
Free Agent — no remaining contract obligations.
Win Model Development
WM Score
2.472
Expected WM
2.442
Dev Residual
+0.0298
Peak Age
33
Peak WM
2.787
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating * Ridge coefficient). Measures predicted win contribution from ratings — unbiased across positions.
Win Model Trajectory
Most Similar Players
Predicted Archetype
Offensive
Defensive