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2050 Draft Board

880 scraped prospects ranked by Ridge percentile (vs all pros + college) | Denver picks: #10, #72

Historical draft pick outcomes across 512 drafted players | What should Denver expect at #10?

prospects | above average | Denver picks: #10, #72

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44.3%
Star Rate (Picks 6-10)
CA >= 4.0
0.0%
Bust Rate (Picks 6-10)
CA < 2.0
3.5
Median CA (Picks 6-10)
n=61 veterans
96.7%
Starter Rate (Picks 6-10)
CA >= 3.0

Draft Value Analysis

Value Curve
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Hit Rates by Range
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Pick vs Impact
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Value by Pick Range

Range N Avg CA Avg Impact Star% Bust%
1-3 47 3.71 54.8 63.4% 0.0%
4-5 31 3.6 54.7 55.6% 0.0%
6-10 * 71 3.5 51.7 44.3% 0.0%
11-20 117 3.28 49.9 27.8% 0.0%
21-40 150 3.1 49.0 17.5% 1.8%
41-60 74 2.84 47.2 12.8% 2.1%
61+ 22 2.77 39.6 15.4% 0.0%
* Denver's pick range | Star = CA >= 4.0, Bust = CA < 2.0 | Veterans only (3+ yrs pro)

Historical Picks 8-12

# Name Team CA PA Impact
8 Nazir Link * Austin Rockets 2 3 49
8 Conner Pearson Baltimore Bullets 4 4 54
8 Dimitris Karras Charlotte Drones 3 3.5 48
8 Ambrose Udoh Chicago Jailbirds 4 4 51
8 Kel Pendergast Denver Dragons 4 4 50
8 Willie Bennett Las Vegas Scorpions 3.5 3.5 57
8 Terrence Swan Louisville Colonels 4 4 53
8 Raekwon Pack Miami Cyclones 4 4 60
8 Devon Walton New York Renegades 4 4 48
8 Vasja Delimont * Oakland Tritons 2.5 3.5 39
8 Leon Hawthorne Oklahoma City Barons 4 4 65
8 Demitrius Waltz Phoenix Vultures 3.5 3.5 52
8 Isaac Lopez Portland Lumberjacks 3.5 3.5 49
9 Scoochie Hope Atlanta Devils 3.5 3.5 54
9 René Köpke * Charlotte Drones 3 4 32
9 Ðorde Petrović Cleveland Giants 3.5 3.5 40
9 Kaden Ford Dallas Predators 3.5 3.5 56
9 Kaimyn Fry Denver Dragons 3.5 3.5 44
9 Keyon McCoy Houston Lightning 3.5 3.5 55
9 Jonathan Landry Las Vegas Scorpions 3 3 53
9 Anthony Beamer Miami Cyclones 3 3 46
9 Tymier Hadaway New York Renegades 3.5 3.5 46
9 Stephan Rayner New York Renegades 3.5 4.5 48
9 Jordan Kolaxis Philadelphia Warriors 3.5 4 54
9 Tre Braun Phoenix Vultures 4 4 66
9 Kylian Fontaine * Phoenix Vultures 2.5 5 46
9 DJ McCants Phoenix Vultures 4 4 55
9 Demario George Toronto Huskies 2 2 0
9 Jordan Johnson Jr Vancouver Wolves 3.5 3.5 46
10 Waylan Loftin Dallas Predators 3 4.5 66
10 Bogdan Nikolic Dallas Predators 4 4 46
10 Tra'Vaughn Tauaefa Detroit Mustangs 3 3 51
10 Jamaya Patton Indiana Stonecutters 4 4 40
10 Coty Sima Indiana Stonecutters 4 4 52
10 Evan Demery Kansas City Knights 3 3 58
10 Triston Dantley * Los Angeles Fireballs 3 5 48
10 Jamarcus Payne Minneapolis Blizzards 4 4 49
10 Anvar Makiev * Oakland Tritons 3 4.5 34
10 Marco De Luca Oklahoma City Barons 4 4.5 73
10 Xavier Lowe Philadelphia Warriors 3.5 3.5 62
10 Demitrius Burns Portland Lumberjacks 4 4 70
10 Derrick Barnes St Louis Skyhawks 3 3 51
10 James Winters Washington Pilots 4 4 50
11 Leonardo Bianchi Charlotte Drones 3.5 3.5 43
11 Adrian Schwartz Cleveland Giants 3.5 3.5 65
11 Garrick Jurkin Denver Dragons 3.5 5 52
11 LaMarcus Quinn * Denver Dragons 3 3.5 43
11 Antonio Lopez Kansas City Knights 3.5 3.5 60
11 Detric Akenten Louisville Colonels 3.5 3.5 56
11 Zion Buckner Mexico City Jaguars 3.5 3.5 56
11 Kaan Korkmaz * Nashville Stars 2.5 3.5 26
11 Al-Amir Geyen New Orleans Hurricanes 3.5 3.5 44
11 Landon Battier New York Renegades 4 4 61
11 Dejon Wright Phoenix Vultures 3.5 3.5 56
11 Cassius LeVert Pittsburgh Vipers 3 3 51
11 Lance Jacobsen St Louis Skyhawks 3 3 47
12 Omari Swift Baltimore Bullets 2.5 3.5 40
12 Gage Woodward Chicago Jailbirds 3.5 4 54
12 McKinley Power * Cleveland Giants 2.5 4.5 55
12 Mustapha Efianayi Houston Lightning 4 4 52
12 DeLazarus Russell Las Vegas Scorpions 3.5 4 57
12 Guy Vasquez Los Angeles Fireballs 3.5 3.5 56
12 Tenzin Ozer Louisville Colonels 3.5 3.5 62
12 Lyles Heimuli * Miami Cyclones 2 3.5 42
12 Axel Grenier Minneapolis Blizzards 3 3 50
12 Tiago Fernandes Nashville Stars 4 4 39
12 Jose Aguirre Portland Lumberjacks 2.5 2.5 49
12 Ruben Miramontes Seattle Thunder 3.5 3.5 58
12 Kostas Zonas Vancouver Wolves 4 4 72
* Young player (1-2 yrs pro) -- may not have reached peak

Best Value Picks

# Name Team Impact Surplus
23 Stanley Amakor Chicago Jailbirds 84 +34
4 Veljko Pavlovic Oklahoma City Barons 87 +31
1 Kavian Hawes Kansas City Knights 85 +26
15 Alzee Sessoms Cleveland Giants 77 +25
22 Cole Kopelani Salt Lake City Saints 75 +25
Impact far above draft slot expectation

Biggest Misses

# Name Team Impact Deficit
2 Erick Foster Atlanta Devils 0 -59
9 Demario George Toronto Huskies 0 -53
19 Sebastian Steinbach Dallas Predators 0 -52
68 Quinn Starke Phoenix Vultures 0 -52
16 Davide Deangelo St Louis Skyhawks 0 -52
Impact far below draft slot expectation

Denver #10 Implications

Picks 6-10 have a 44.3% chance of producing a Star (CA 4.0+) and a 96.7% chance of producing a starter-caliber player.

Median outcome: CA 3.5 across 61 historical veterans.

Trading up (to 1-3): avg CA gain = +0.26

Trading down (to 11-20): avg CA loss = -0.18

Value curve is flat in 6-20 range -- trading down costs little in expected value while gaining additional assets.

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