Cairo Johnson-Brooks
WNashville Stars · Stationary Shooter / Wing Stopper
College: North Carolina · Charlotte, North Carolina
Relentless two-way shooting forward
A fringe wing averaging 9.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 APG. Excels in rim protection (19 rating, 100th pctl), post defense (19 rating, 99th pctl) and off-ball defense (18 rating, 92nd pctl). Limited by post execution (1 rating, 4th pctl) and passing (8 rating, 17th pctl).
44
Impact
2.5
CA
3
PA
21
Age
$5.2M
Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)
Strengths
Rim Protection 19 (coef=0.0122)
Help Defense 17 (coef=0.0134)
Isolation Execution 15 (coef=0.0096)
Endurance 13 (coef=0.0092)
Post Defense 19 (coef=0.0057)
Weaknesses
Defensive Rebounding 8 (coef=0.0204)
Offensive Rebounding 9 (coef=0.0145)
Inside Shooting 14 (coef=0.0145)
3PT Shooting 13 (coef=0.0122)
Athleticism 11 (coef=-0.0111)
Play Style
Driving Frequency
1%
Roll : Pop
41:59
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up
91:9
Corner 3 : Above the Break
55:45
Positional Fit
Guard
0%
Wing
50%
Big
20%
Player Impact Breakdown
Below-average score driven by modest win-model ratings.
44
/ 100
#409 of 503
On-Court Impact (EPM) — 60% weight
-0.07z
EPM -0.20 (Off -0.48, Def +0.28)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight
-0.53z
Ridge coefficient score: -0.0202
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight
-0.73z
WS/48 residual: -0.0456 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
42
#442
Defense
52
#205
Confidence
99%
2209 min
Tendencies
Salary
$5.2M
Years Left
1
Expiry
End of 2049
Option
Team Option
Status
Important Player
Trade Value
0.367
Contract Breakdown
Free Agent — no remaining contract obligations.
Win Model Development
WM Score
2.405
Expected WM
2.194
Dev Residual
+0.2109
Peak Age
30
Peak WM
2.711
PA Tier
Medium
Upside Gap
0.5
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating * Ridge coefficient). Measures predicted win contribution from ratings — unbiased across positions.
Win Model Trajectory
Most Similar Players
Predicted Archetype
Offensive
Defensive