Cayden Ward
GPortland Lumberjacks · Primary Ballhandler / Point Of Attack
College: USC · Las Vegas, Nevada
Heady two-way shooting guard
A star-level scoring point guard averaging 15.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 8.2 APG. Excels in self-creation (19 rating, 100th pctl), free throws (20 rating, 100th pctl) and playmaking (19 rating, 100th pctl). Limited by strength (3 rating, 7th pctl) and first step (5 rating, 8th pctl).
56
Impact
3.5
CA
4.5
PA
24
Age
$25.0M
Strengths & Weaknesses (Win Model)
Strengths
Inside Shooting 18 (coef=0.0145)
Pick & Roll Execution 14 (coef=0.0152)
Help Defense 15 (coef=0.0134)
3PT Shooting 16 (coef=0.0122)
Isolation Execution 19 (coef=0.0096)
Weaknesses
Defensive Rebounding 6 (coef=0.0204)
Rim Protection 2 (coef=0.0122)
Foul Drawing 11 (coef=0.0080)
Post Defense 3 (coef=0.0057)
Strength 3 (coef=0.0031)
Play Style
Driving Frequency
1%
Roll : Pop
19:81
Catch & Shoot : Pull-Up
66:34
Corner 3 : Above the Break
53:47
Positional Fit
Guard
70%
Wing
70%
Big
0%
Player Impact Breakdown
Solid starter score driven by strong win-model ratings. Offense is the primary value driver.
56
/ 100
#142 of 503
On-Court Impact (EPM) — 60% weight
-0.06z
EPM -0.16 (Off -0.18, Def +0.03)
Win-Model Ratings — 25% weight
+0.86z
Ridge coefficient score: 0.0692
Hidden Intangibles — 15% weight
+0.41z
WS/48 residual: +0.0215 (actual vs predicted from ratings)
Offense
59
#83
Defense
46
#385
Confidence
100%
2563 min
Tendencies
Salary
$25.0M
Years Left
1
Expiry
End of 2049
Option
None
Status
Important Player
Trade Value
0.492
Contract Breakdown
Free Agent — no remaining contract obligations.
Win Model Development
WM Score
2.506
Expected WM
2.388
Dev Residual
+0.1181
Peak Age
34
Peak WM
2.900
PA Tier
High
Upside Gap
1.0
Dev Status
Ahead of Curve
Win Model Score = sum(rating * Ridge coefficient). Measures predicted win contribution from ratings — unbiased across positions.
Win Model Trajectory
Most Similar Players
Predicted Archetype
Offensive
Defensive