Behavioral Analytics

Play style tendencies, coaching philosophy analysis, and archetype correlations

League-Wide Tendency Correlations

Position-Stratified Correlations (vs Impact)

Tendency Guard r (n) Wing r (n) Big r (n)
Driving Frequency -0.082 (74) +0.074 (149) -0.188 (148)
Roll % (vs Pop) +0.184 (74) -0.088 (149) -0.156 (148)
Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) +0.276 (74) +0.147 (149) +0.033 (148)
Corner 3 % (vs ATB) -0.081 (74) +0.148 (149) -0.044 (148)

Bold = |r| > 0.15 and p < 0.05 (actionable correlation)

Denver Tendency Gaps vs League Average

Position Tendency League Mean Denver Mean Gap (Δ) Verdict
Guard Driving Frequency 8.6 9.0 +0.4
Guard Roll % (vs Pop) 26.2 15.0 -11.2
Guard Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) 48.8 54.3 +5.5
Guard Corner 3 % (vs ATB) 55.2 58.3 +3.1
Wing Driving Frequency 9.6 7.7 -1.9
Wing Roll % (vs Pop) 23.3 32.0 +8.7
Wing Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) 58.7 70.0 +11.3
Wing Corner 3 % (vs ATB) 60.6 57.0 -3.6
Big Driving Frequency 9.2 7.0 -2.2
Big Roll % (vs Pop) 65.2 54.8 -10.4
Big Catch & Shoot % (vs Pull-Up) 80.8 76.0 -4.8
Big Corner 3 % (vs ATB) 54.9 56.2 +1.3
Actionable insight:

Tendency × Performance Correlations

Tendency Correlations

All correlations with n ≥ 10. Bars show Pearson/Spearman r values across three outcomes (BPM, WS/48, Impact).

Archetype Performance Profiles

driver

Drive-First Impact 49.7
n = | BPM +0.1
Top players:
  • Devonte Bell (Chicago Jailbirds, Impact 81)
  • Russell Boozer (Cincinnati Kings, Impact 73)
  • Lukas Lanmuller (Boston Crusaders, Impact 72)
Balanced Driver Impact 53.0
n = | BPM +0.6
Top players:
  • Stanley Amakor (Chicago Jailbirds, Impact 87)
  • Jacob Nazarian (Cincinnati Kings, Impact 72)
  • Kostas Zonas (Vancouver Wolves, Impact 71)
Non-Driver Impact 52.3
n = | BPM +0.5
Top players:
  • Kavian Hawes (Kansas City Knights, Impact 85)
  • Alzee Sessoms (Cleveland Giants, Impact 78)
  • Veljko Pavlovic (Oklahoma City Barons, Impact 78)

shooter

C&S Specialist Impact 51.4
n = | BPM +0.5
Top players:
  • Stanley Amakor (Chicago Jailbirds, Impact 87)
  • Veljko Pavlovic (Oklahoma City Barons, Impact 78)
  • Russell Boozer (Cincinnati Kings, Impact 73)
Balanced Shooter Impact 52.7
n = | BPM +0.6
Top players:
  • Devonte Bell (Chicago Jailbirds, Impact 81)
  • Alzee Sessoms (Cleveland Giants, Impact 78)
  • Jacob Nazarian (Cincinnati Kings, Impact 72)
Pull-Up Heavy Impact 50.8
n = | BPM +0.2
Top players:
  • Kavian Hawes (Kansas City Knights, Impact 85)
  • Lukas Lanmuller (Boston Crusaders, Impact 72)
  • Derrick Lynch (Seattle Thunder, Impact 72)

roller

Roll Man Impact 48.6
n = | BPM -0.0
Top players:
  • Veljko Pavlovic (Oklahoma City Barons, Impact 78)
  • Russell Boozer (Cincinnati Kings, Impact 73)
  • Marco De Luca (Oklahoma City Barons, Impact 71)
Balanced Roller Impact 52.1
n = | BPM +0.5
Top players:
  • Kavian Hawes (Kansas City Knights, Impact 85)
  • Devonte Bell (Chicago Jailbirds, Impact 81)
  • Derrick Lynch (Seattle Thunder, Impact 72)
Pop Specialist Impact 54.0
n = | BPM +0.8
Top players:
  • Stanley Amakor (Chicago Jailbirds, Impact 87)
  • Alzee Sessoms (Cleveland Giants, Impact 78)
  • Lukas Lanmuller (Boston Crusaders, Impact 72)

Archetype Performance Comparison

Archetype Performance

Mean BPM and Impact by archetype. Error bars show 95% confidence intervals.

Denver Archetype Mix vs Top-3 Teams

Archetype Category Denver Count Top-3 Avg Gap

Coaching Philosophy Correlations with Win%

Philosophy r with Win% p-value n
Pace And Space 🏆 +0.562 < 0.001 *** 36
Morey Ball 🏆 +0.306 0.070 36
Grit And Grind 🏆 +0.226 0.185 36
Triangle +0.092 0.592 36
Balanced +0.085 0.623 36
Post Centric +0.054 0.756 36
Seven Seconds +0.022 0.897 36
Perimeter Centric -0.253 0.137 36

Philosophy × Win% Correlation Strength

Philosophy Correlations

Pearson r between roster-derived philosophy proficiency and team win%. Pace & Space dominates.

Coach-Roster Philosophy Alignment

Teams where declared HC philosophy differs from roster-inferred philosophy (mismatches flagged).

Team Declared (Coach) Inferred (Roster) Win% Mismatch
Atlanta Devils Unknown Pace And Space 27.7% No
Austin Rockets Unknown Balanced 57.8% No
Baltimore Bullets Unknown Balanced 57.3% No
Boston Crusaders Unknown Morey Ball 50.6% No
Charlotte Drones Unknown Triangle 48.2% No
Chicago Jailbirds Unknown Pace And Space 74.3% No
Cincinnati Kings Unknown Morey Ball 72.5% No
Cleveland Giants Unknown Balanced 62.8% No
Dallas Predators Unknown Balanced 38.6% No
Denver Dragons Unknown Balanced 35.4% No
Detroit Mustangs Unknown Balanced 64.0% No
Houston Lightning Unknown Balanced 31.3% No
Indiana Stonecutters Unknown Pace And Space 25.3% No
Kansas City Knights Unknown Pace And Space 73.8% No
Las Vegas Scorpions Unknown Balanced 61.5% No
Los Angeles Fireballs Unknown Pace And Space 57.6% No
Louisville Colonels Unknown Balanced 67.0% No
Mexico City Jaguars Unknown Morey Ball 57.8% No
Miami Cyclones Unknown Balanced 39.8% No
Minneapolis Blizzards Unknown Pace And Space 56.7% No
Nashville Stars Unknown Balanced 22.9% No
New Orleans Hurricanes Unknown Morey Ball 52.4% No
New York Renegades Unknown Morey Ball 42.2% No
Oakland Tritons Unknown Balanced 22.9% No
Oklahoma City Barons Unknown Balanced 67.8% No
Philadelphia Warriors Unknown Pace And Space 62.2% No
Phoenix Vultures Unknown Morey Ball 55.4% No
Pittsburgh Vipers Unknown Balanced 37.3% No
Portland Lumberjacks Unknown Balanced 66.3% No
Salt Lake City Saints Unknown Balanced 36.1% No
San Diego Calaveras Unknown Pace And Space 21.7% No
Seattle Thunder Unknown Pace And Space 77.6% No
St Louis Skyhawks Unknown Balanced 22.9% No
Toronto Huskies Unknown Morey Ball 30.1% No
Vancouver Wolves Unknown Pace And Space 68.8% No
Washington Pilots Unknown Balanced 32.5% No

Denver Dragons Coaching Evaluation

Current State

HC Philosophy: Unknown
Roster-Inferred: Balanced
Mismatch Status: Yes - System and roster misaligned

Ideal Coaching Profile

Primary System:
Alternative:

Reasoning

Roster strongest in Balanced (score 20.0)

Recommendation Summary

Actionable Recommendations
3
Strongest Correlation
Biggest Denver Gap
Actionable Gap

2. Denver Guards are below league average in Roll % (vs Pop) (gap=-11.2). Target acquisition to close gap.

Evidence: Gap=-11.2, r=0.184 with BPM
Archetype Priority

3. Pop Specialist archetype has highest mean Impact (54.0).

Evidence: n=126, mean Impact=54.0
Coaching Philosophy

Coach philosophy (None) differs from roster strength (Balanced)

Evidence: Roster strongest in Balanced